Every program page quotes a big number. The public record quotes a smaller one, and it keeps repeating the same names.
Across 66 federal programs and 7 Alberta programs, the typical winner receives far less than the advertised ceiling. CanExport SMEs is capped at $50,000 but pays a median of $25,000. Most winners win only once, yet in a few programs a handful of firms take almost everything: 10 companies captured 79% of Alberta’s Site Rehabilitation dollars.
The advertised maximum is not what winners get.
Program pages lead with the ceiling, “up to $50,000.” The disclosed awards tell a plainer story: the median winner receives a fraction of it. These are the pairs where we can line the advertised cap up against every disclosed award.
The median winner received half the advertised maximum.
The median winner received under a third of the cap.
Most winners win once. A few learn to stack.
Winning is rarely a habit. Only about 38% of IRAP winners and 43% of Canada Summer Jobs employers ever won in more than one year; for CanExport it is closer to 25%. The exceptions matter most: the small group that keeps coming back captures a wildly outsized share of the money.
The gap between winning once and winning a fifth time is a map, not merit. We took the full recurrence pattern apart, who repeats, how the dollars concentrate, and the hidden ladder between programs, in a companion story.
In some programs, a handful of firms take almost everything.
Alberta publishes its grant payments too, which lets us see concentration at the program level. Two patterns stand out: heavy dollar concentration in oil-field site cleanup, and heavy repeat winning in film and animation.
Alberta’s Site Rehabilitation Program paid oil-field service companies to clean up inactive wells. Of the money disclosed, the ten largest recipients captured nearly four-fifths of it.
Alberta’s screen-sector grant rewards studios that keep producing. Nearly two-thirds of winners returned across multiple years, the clearest repeat-winner pattern in the province’s data, on a median award of just $2,563.
What winners actually received, six programs up close.
Each panel is built live from the public record: the median award, the spread of award sizes, and where the money went. Open any panel to see who won and how much.
NRC IRAP, the R&D on-ramp
The research-and-development program most serial winners start with: a $75,000 median award, but a long tail that climbs into the millions.
CanExport SMEs, the $50k cap that pays $25k
The headline export grant. More than 10,000 businesses have won it, and the median award lands at exactly half the advertised ceiling.
Canada Summer Jobs, the near-universal first cheque
A quarter of a million employers have received it, at a median of $6,319. For many small organizations it is the very first public dollar they ever win.
FedDev Business Scale-up, the seven-figure rung
The far end of the ladder. A $1.75 million median for a rare few hundred firms, most of them established Ontario manufacturers.
Canada-Alberta Job Grant, training at scale
Training dollars spread thin across more than 17,000 Alberta employers, at a median of $1,537, with recognizable energy names near the top.
Alberta film & animation, where winners come back
Small cheques, loyal recipients. Nearly two in three winners of Alberta’s post-production grant return for more, the strongest repeat pattern we found.
Stop reading the ceiling. See what you would actually win.
The advertised maximum is marketing. GrantCompass shows you the programs you qualify for, the award a business like yours can realistically expect, and the steps to get there.
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